As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31, 2027 at 62.0% in Will Ambient launch a token by ___? — $7.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, March 31, 2027, is priced at 62.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +1.5 pts; past month: +20.5 pts.
Since June 26, 2026, March 31, 2027 has traded between 28.5% and 65.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 63.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 63.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 63.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 63.5% |
March 31, 2027 is favored at 62.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 62¢ | 62.0% | +0.5 pts | $1.3K | 17.7% |
| June 30, 2027 | 61¢ | 61.0% | -3.5 pts | $504 | 6.6% |
| September 30, 2027 | 57¢ | 57.0% | — | $1.8K | 23.0% |
| December 31, 2027 | 51¢ | 51.0% | +0.5 pts | $2.3K | 30.3% |
| December 31, 2026 | 44¢ | 43.5% | +2.0 pts | $693 | 9.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 26¢ (bid 49¢ / ask 75¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ambient officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Ambient will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Ambient (https://x.com/ambient_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution source: https://x.com/ambient_xyz
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 160 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Superb-Crop | Yes | 160 | $99 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 51 | $32 |
| Speedy-Bartender | No | 50 | $19 |
| Threadbare-Investor-Traffic | No | 40 | $15 |
| Fixed-Eaglet | No | 37 | $14 |
| Authentic-Disposer-Clavicle | No | 30 | $11 |
| Favorable-Crayfish | No | 30 | $11 |
| Known-Use | No | 20 | $8 |
| Shabby-Personnel-Lift | No | 3 | $1 |
| Delectable-Waistband-Star | No | 2 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 05:04 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.0% | $8 |
| Oct 16, 12:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $11 |
| Oct 16, 12:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 40.0% | $4 |
| Oct 16, 12:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $14 |
| Oct 16, 11:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 58.0% | $21 |
| Oct 16, 11:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 37.0% | $14 |
| Oct 16, 11:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 58.0% | $3 |
| Oct 16, 11:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 37.0% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 03:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $18 |
| Oct 14, 05:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 54.0% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 62.0%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 61.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ambient-launch-a-token-by?via=bro
$7.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/ambient_xyz.
March 31, 2027, priced at 62.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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