As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 84.5% in Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? — $99.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 84.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: +1.0 pts.
Since June 29, 2026, No has traded between 50.0% and 92.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 84.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 84.5% |
No is favored at 84.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 84¢ | 84.5% | — | $99.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 16¢ | 15.5% | — | $99.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 18¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$99.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 73 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daring-Angora | No | 73 | $62 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 67 | $57 |
| Altruistic-Gentleman | Yes | 57 | $9 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 49 | $8 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 32 | $5 |
| Darling-Top | No | 25 | $21 |
| Grimy-Industry | Yes | 21 | $3 |
| Prudent-Method | No | 17 | $14 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 14 | $2 |
| Minty-Mileage-Cowboy | No | 14 | $12 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 04, 07:19 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $15 |
| Oct 03, 06:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.6% | $10 |
| Sep 29, 09:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $13 |
| Sep 17, 05:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $20 |
| Sep 14, 12:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.5% | $49 |
| Sep 13, 12:52 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $7 |
| Sep 09, 05:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.3% | $7 |
| Sep 07, 10:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $5 |
| Sep 06, 07:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $8 |
| Sep 06, 07:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.6% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 84.5%. Next is Yes at 15.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-an-international-court-find-israel-or-its-leaders-guilty-of-genocide-by-december-31-2027-20260629142909679?via=bro
$99.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 84.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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