As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.0% in Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? — $200.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.0 pts; past month: -11.0 pts.
Since April 28, 2026, No has traded between 60.5% and 94.0%. It opened at 63.5% and last traded at 94.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.0% |
No is favored at 94.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 94.0% | — | $200.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $200.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$200.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 02:59 PM ET.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,500 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ample-Instance | Yes | 7,500 | $450 |
| 0xef97d61b… | No | 5,699 | $5.4K |
| Illustrious-Spectacles | No | 5,354 | $5.0K |
| Unaware-Pipe | No | 3,651 | $3.4K |
| Meager-Sprag | Yes | 3,241 | $194 |
| Criminal-Scenario | No | 2,595 | $2.4K |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | No | 2,030 | $1.9K |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 951 | $57 |
| Infinite-War | No | 907 | $852 |
| Ordinary-Confectionery | Yes | 800 | $48 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 01:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 09:31 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 10:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 12:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $17 |
| Oct 20, 12:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $12 |
| Oct 20, 12:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $1.2K |
| Oct 19, 12:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $5 |
| Oct 17, 04:19 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.2% | $54 |
| Oct 15, 03:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $8 |
| Oct 14, 12:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.0%. Next is Yes at 6.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-another-country-leave-opec-in-2026?via=bro
$200.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 02:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
No, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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