As of October 24, 2026, 09:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 52.5% in Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026? — $299 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 52.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.5 pts; past week: -9.5 pts; past month: -12.5 pts.
Since June 24, 2026, No has traded between 23.0% and 66.0%. It opened at 61.0% and last traded at 51.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 51.5% |
No is favored at 52.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 52¢ | 52.5% | -3.5 pts | $299 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 48¢ | 47.5% | +3.5 pts | $299 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 65¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 80¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$299 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement. This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 113 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tricky-Usher | No | 113 | $59 |
| Monstrous-Dew | Yes | 82 | $39 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 35 | $17 |
| Squiggly-Waiting | No | 6 | $3 |
| Amazing-Pad | Yes | 2 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 08:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 19.0% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 05:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 27.0% | $22 |
| Sep 19, 07:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 11.0% | $2 |
| Sep 15, 12:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Jul 02, 01:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.0% | $1 |
| Jul 02, 04:48 AM ET | No | SELL | 18.0% | $0 |
| Jun 30, 11:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.2% | $99 |
| Jun 25, 10:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 63.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 52.5%. Next is Yes at 47.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-another-sitting-australian-mp-join-one-nation-in-2026-20260623173655164?via=bro
$299 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 52.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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