As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 63.0% in Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? — $206.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 63.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.5 pts; past week: -6.5 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.
Since April 28, 2026, Yes has traded between 19.5% and 85.0%. It opened at 25.0% and last traded at 69.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 69.5% |
Yes is favored at 63.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 63¢ | 63.0% | -6.5 pts | $206.6K | 100.0% |
| No | 37¢ | 37.0% | +6.5 pts | $206.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$206.6K has been traded on this event in total, $100 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead. For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,002 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-Sphere | No | 6,002 | $2.2K |
| Trained-Sniffle | Yes | 4,314 | $2.7K |
| Outgoing-Effort | No | 2,228 | $824 |
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 2,057 | $1.3K |
| Nice-Perennial | Yes | 1,413 | $890 |
| Worthwhile-Hockey | Yes | 1,219 | $768 |
| Merry-Axis | No | 1,215 | $450 |
| Distinct-Kale | Yes | 1,142 | $719 |
| Lustrous-Proceedings | Yes | 945 | $595 |
| Obvious-Pit | No | 900 | $333 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 03:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 51.9% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 11:42 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 64.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:42 AM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 11:42 AM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 03:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 71.0% | $284 |
| Oct 22, 03:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $148 |
| Oct 22, 09:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $327 |
| Oct 22, 09:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 73.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 09:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 72.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 63.0%. Next is No at 37.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropic-flip-btc-by-december-31?via=bro
$206.6K in total volume, with $100 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin.
Yes, priced at 63.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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