As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1560 at 44.5% in Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31? — $239.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1560, is priced at 44.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.5 pts; past week: -2.5 pts; past month: +13.0 pts.
Since April 02, 2026, 1560 has traded between 20.5% and 95.5%. It opened at 41.0% and last traded at 48.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 39.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 48.0% |
1560 is favored at 44.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1560 | 44¢ | 44.5% | -3.5 pts | $123.6K | 51.7% |
| 1580 | 20¢ | 19.5% | +0.5 pts | $76.2K | 31.8% |
| 1600 | 6¢ | 6.3% | — | $39.4K | 16.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 46¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$239.2K has been traded on this event in total, $105 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,654 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-Branch | Yes | 6,654 | $3.0K |
| Busy-Doorpost | No | 5,375 | $3.0K |
| Willing-Arm | Yes | 4,595 | $2.0K |
| Reflecting-Pantology | No | 4,384 | $2.4K |
| Indelible-Try | No | 2,113 | $1.2K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 1,606 | $715 |
| Experienced-Smell-Railroad | No | 1,000 | $555 |
| Optimal-Miss | No | 766 | $425 |
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | Yes | 650 | $289 |
| Courteous-Lyocell-Basement | Yes | 565 | $252 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 44.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 02:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 54.0% | $39 |
| Oct 22, 02:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 53.0% | $11 |
| Oct 22, 01:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 01:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 44.0% | $16 |
| Oct 22, 09:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 09:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 08:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.1% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 07:44 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $9 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1560 at 44.5%. Next is 1580 at 19.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-ai-model-reach-coding-arena-score-by-december-31?via=bro
$239.2K in total volume, with $105 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control.
1560, priced at 44.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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