Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:03 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 76.0% in Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? — $33.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
76%
A 76.0% price implies roughly a 76-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +2.5 pts30D +4.0 pts
No76.0%
Yes24.0%
Bid
5¢
Ask
43¢
Spread
38¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since April 04, 2026: 60.0% – 88.5% · Opened at 86.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
Category
Iran, Politics, Israel, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Middle East, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 AM ET
Total volume
$33.5K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$112
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 76.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 76.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +2.5 pts; past month: +4.0 pts.

Since April 04, 2026, No has traded between 60.0% and 88.5%. It opened at 86.0% and last traded at 76.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202681.5%
Oct 16, 202682.0%
Oct 18, 202673.5%
Oct 19, 202681.5%
Oct 20, 202677.0%
Oct 24, 202676.0%
Oct 24, 202676.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 76.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No76¢76.0%—$33.5K100.0%
Yes24¢24.0%—$33.5K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 38¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 43¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$33.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 AM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 400 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sharp-AstrakhanNo400$304
Downright-WebsiteNo266$202
Disastrous-BendYes201$48
Belated-GlueYes165$40
Austere-AssistYes132$32
Male-CacaoYes121$29
Sore-Meadow-ColonialNo108$82
Slippery-ApartmentNo75$57
Automatic-HexagonYes74$18
Sleepy-DisconnectionNo58$44

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $455 at 80.0%BUY No — $455 at 80.0%BUY No — $343 at 85.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 12, 06:44 AM ETYesBUY17.0%$5
Oct 12, 05:05 AM ETYesBUY16.0%$5
Oct 12, 04:25 AM ETNoBUY93.8%$249
Oct 05, 08:51 AM ETYesBUY16.0%$3
Oct 05, 02:31 AM ETYesBUY12.0%$4
Oct 05, 02:21 AM ETNoBUY92.9%$100
Oct 04, 03:38 PM ETYesBUY22.0%$1
Oct 04, 12:06 PM ETNoBUY92.0%$1
Sep 22, 10:00 AM ETYesSELL9.0%$0
Sep 21, 11:27 AM ETNoSELL61.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 76.0%. Next is Yes at 24.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-country-expel-a-us-ambassador-by-december-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31??

$33.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 AM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 76.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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