As of October 24, 2026, 08:03 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 76.0% in Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? — $33.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 76.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +2.5 pts; past month: +4.0 pts.
Since April 04, 2026, No has traded between 60.0% and 88.5%. It opened at 86.0% and last traded at 76.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 76.0% |
No is favored at 76.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 76¢ | 76.0% | — | $33.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 24¢ | 24.0% | — | $33.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 38¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 43¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$33.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 400 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp-Astrakhan | No | 400 | $304 |
| Downright-Website | No | 266 | $202 |
| Disastrous-Bend | Yes | 201 | $48 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 165 | $40 |
| Austere-Assist | Yes | 132 | $32 |
| Male-Cacao | Yes | 121 | $29 |
| Sore-Meadow-Colonial | No | 108 | $82 |
| Slippery-Apartment | No | 75 | $57 |
| Automatic-Hexagon | Yes | 74 | $18 |
| Sleepy-Disconnection | No | 58 | $44 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 06:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $5 |
| Oct 12, 05:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $5 |
| Oct 12, 04:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.8% | $249 |
| Oct 05, 08:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $3 |
| Oct 05, 02:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $4 |
| Oct 05, 02:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.9% | $100 |
| Oct 04, 03:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $1 |
| Oct 04, 12:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $1 |
| Sep 22, 10:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $0 |
| Sep 21, 11:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 61.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 76.0%. Next is Yes at 24.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-country-expel-a-us-ambassador-by-december-31?via=bro
$33.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 AM ET.
No, priced at 76.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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