As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 4.8% in Will any country leave NATO by...? — $1.43M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 4.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.8 pts; past month: +1.5 pts.
Since March 31, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 1.9% and 17.5%. It opened at 11.0% and last traded at 4.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 3.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 3.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 2.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 5.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 5.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 4.8% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 4.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5¢ | 4.8% | — | $411.3K | 28.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.43M has been traded on this event in total, $179 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 22,607 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odd-Okra | No | 22,607 | $21.5K |
| Safe-Jewelry | Yes | 8,823 | $419 |
| Stable-Fog | No | 8,514 | $8.1K |
| Lean-Crime | Yes | 2,915 | $138 |
| Uniform-Mrna | Yes | 2,727 | $130 |
| Well-Worn-Infancy | Yes | 2,352 | $112 |
| Wan-Bottle | Yes | 2,113 | $100 |
| Dependable-Propane | Yes | 1,868 | $89 |
| Sneaky-Juice | No | 1,700 | $1.6K |
| Salty-Pod | Yes | 999 | $47 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 07:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.8% | $170 |
| Oct 23, 09:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.6% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 10:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.5% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 05:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.5% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 01:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.1% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 01:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 01:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.3% | $27 |
| Oct 21, 04:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.8% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 11:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.6% | $18 |
| Oct 20, 03:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.1% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 4.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025?via=bro
$1.43M in total volume, with $179 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 4.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.