As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.5% in Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election? — $17.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.1 pts; past week: -3.8 pts; past month: -4.0 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, No has traded between 82.5% and 97.5%. It opened at 89.5% and last traded at 96.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 92.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 90.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.5% |
No is favored at 96.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97¢ | 96.5% | -1.1 pts | $17.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 3¢ | 3.5% | +1.1 pts | $17.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$17.1K has been traded on this event in total, $980 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026, with a second round on November 1, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Resolution source: https://www.cik.bg/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,348 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaseous-Visit-Duckling | No | 4,348 | $4.2K |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | Yes | 2,632 | $91 |
| Silent-Rowboat | Yes | 1,629 | $56 |
| Mysterious-Iris | No | 1,582 | $1.5K |
| Charming-Grape | Yes | 1,180 | $41 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 847 | $29 |
| Meek-Decoder | No | 573 | $554 |
| Playful-Chop-Havoc | No | 524 | $506 |
| Utilized-Sundial | No | 369 | $356 |
| Vacant-Legacy | No | 348 | $336 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:34 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.9% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 08:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.2% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 07:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.9% | $17 |
| Oct 22, 11:16 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 10:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.5% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 06:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.8% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 06:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 06:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 06:25 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.4% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.5%. Next is Yes at 3.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-bulgaria-election?via=bro
$17.1K in total volume, with $980 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.cik.bg/.
No, priced at 96.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.