As of October 24, 2026, 08:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.0% in Will anyone win France’s presidential election in the first round? — $2.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.2 pts; past week: +1.3 pts.
Since October 15, 2026, No has traded between 94.8% and 97.4%. It opened at 96.2% and last traded at 95.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.0% |
No is favored at 95.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 95.0% | +0.2 pts | $2.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.0% | -0.2 pts | $2.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end April 18, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in France on April 18, 2027, with a second round on May 2, 2027. A second round will be held if no candidate secures a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French government, specifically the Constitutional Council (Conseil constitutionnel) (https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 694 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive-Concrete | Yes | 694 | $35 |
| Prickly-Offense | No | 471 | $447 |
| Prickly-Signup | No | 398 | $378 |
| Careful-West | Yes | 365 | $18 |
| Crisp-Official | No | 150 | $142 |
| 0x91c363ac… | No | 110 | $104 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 107 | $101 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 101 | $5 |
| Offensive-Crude | No | 50 | $48 |
| Bad-Tatami-Tile | Yes | 48 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 08:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.3% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 12:30 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.5% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 03:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.9% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.5% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.2% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 07:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.1% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.2% | $9 |
| Oct 19, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.2% | $3 |
| Oct 19, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.3% | $3 |
| Oct 19, 07:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.8% | $437 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.0%. Next is Yes at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-anyone-win-frances-presidential-election-in-the-first-round?via=bro
$2.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 18, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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