Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price President at 58.5% in Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028? — $81.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.2K.
Leading outcome
President
58%
A 58.5% price implies roughly a 58-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +5.0 pts7D −7.0 pts30D −6.0 pts
President58.5%
Senate25.5%
Bid
58¢
Ask
59¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 18, 2026: 26.5% – 71.0% · Opened at 59.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?
Category
aoc, Senate, Politics, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 2028 presidential election
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$81.7K
Volume (24h)
$1.2K
Liquidity
$68.0K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
President — 58.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, President, is priced at 58.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.0 pts; past week: -7.0 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.

Since August 18, 2026, President has traded between 26.5% and 71.0%. It opened at 59.5% and last traded at 53.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202663.5%
Oct 16, 202671.0%
Oct 18, 202667.0%
Oct 19, 202665.5%
Oct 20, 202671.0%
Oct 22, 202661.0%
Oct 23, 202653.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

President is favored at 58.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
President58¢58.5%+5.0 pts$46.6K57.0%
Senate26¢25.5%+0.3 pts$21.7K26.6%
Neither16¢15.8%+1.7 pts$13.4K16.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 58¢ / ask 59¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$81.7K has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve based on the office, between United States Senator and President of the United States, that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first officially announces that she is running for in the 2028 election cycle by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to resolve this market in favor of the corresponding outcome, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The formation of an exploratory committee, or a statement that she is exploring or considering a run, will not qualify, nor will any filing that is not accompanied by an announcement. If the listed individual does not announce that she is running for either listed office by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Neither". An announcement of a run for the US House of Representatives will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,709 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No7,709$3.2K
Smoggy-AntiqueNo4,702$2.0K
Faraway-CottonYes4,612$2.7K
Melodic-GiggleYes1,754$1.0K
Sociable-RoosterYes1,533$897
0xa169f83d…Yes1,356$794
Charming-GrapeYes1,112$651
Delayed-VanadylYes882$516
Obvious-EyebrowYes811$474
Velvety-BurnNo682$283

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $588 at 60.0%BUY Yes — $393 at 54.7%SELL Yes — $144 at 57.1%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:36 AM ETYesBUY59.0%$100
Oct 23, 11:30 PM ETNoBUY74.8%$9
Oct 23, 11:03 PM ETNoBUY75.0%$5
Oct 23, 11:03 PM ETNoBUY42.0%$3
Oct 23, 09:58 PM ETNoSELL40.0%$30
Oct 23, 09:57 PM ETNoSELL40.0%$8
Oct 23, 09:57 PM ETNoSELL41.0%$12
Oct 23, 09:57 PM ETYesBUY54.7%$393
Oct 23, 09:57 PM ETNoBUY41.0%$5
Oct 23, 09:57 PM ETYesBUY59.0%$21

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is President at 58.5%. Next is Senate at 25.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-aoc-announce-a-run-for-senate-or-president-before-2028?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028??

$81.7K in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?, according to Polymarket traders?

President, priced at 58.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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