As of October 24, 2026, 07:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price President at 58.5% in Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028? — $81.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, President, is priced at 58.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.0 pts; past week: -7.0 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.
Since August 18, 2026, President has traded between 26.5% and 71.0%. It opened at 59.5% and last traded at 53.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 53.5% |
President is favored at 58.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| President | 58¢ | 58.5% | +5.0 pts | $46.6K | 57.0% |
| Senate | 26¢ | 25.5% | +0.3 pts | $21.7K | 26.6% |
| Neither | 16¢ | 15.8% | +1.7 pts | $13.4K | 16.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 58¢ / ask 59¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$81.7K has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the office, between United States Senator and President of the United States, that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first officially announces that she is running for in the 2028 election cycle by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to resolve this market in favor of the corresponding outcome, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The formation of an exploratory committee, or a statement that she is exploring or considering a run, will not qualify, nor will any filing that is not accompanied by an announcement. If the listed individual does not announce that she is running for either listed office by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Neither". An announcement of a run for the US House of Representatives will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,709 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 7,709 | $3.2K |
| Smoggy-Antique | No | 4,702 | $2.0K |
| Faraway-Cotton | Yes | 4,612 | $2.7K |
| Melodic-Giggle | Yes | 1,754 | $1.0K |
| Sociable-Rooster | Yes | 1,533 | $897 |
| 0xa169f83d… | Yes | 1,356 | $794 |
| Charming-Grape | Yes | 1,112 | $651 |
| Delayed-Vanadyl | Yes | 882 | $516 |
| Obvious-Eyebrow | Yes | 811 | $474 |
| Velvety-Burn | No | 682 | $283 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 59.0% | $100 |
| Oct 23, 11:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 74.8% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 11:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 42.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 09:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 40.0% | $30 |
| Oct 23, 09:57 PM ET | No | SELL | 40.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 09:57 PM ET | No | SELL | 41.0% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 09:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 54.7% | $393 |
| Oct 23, 09:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 09:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 59.0% | $21 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is President at 58.5%. Next is Senate at 25.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-aoc-announce-a-run-for-senate-or-president-before-2028?via=bro
$81.7K in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
President, priced at 58.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.