As of October 24, 2026, 08:05 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 88.5% in Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026? — $30.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 88.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: -13.5 pts; past month: -5.0 pts.
Since June 30, 2026, No has traded between 27.0% and 88.5%. It opened at 70.5% and last traded at 86.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.0% |
No is favored at 88.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88¢ | 88.5% | +2.5 pts | $30.9K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 12¢ | 11.5% | -2.5 pts | $30.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$30.9K has been traded on this event in total, $451 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple. This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,688 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delectable-Makeup | No | 1,688 | $1.5K |
| Breakable-Bottomline | Yes | 1,420 | $163 |
| Glamorous-Doubling | No | 1,126 | $997 |
| Insecure-Statement | Yes | 1,077 | $124 |
| Forsaken-Mandarin | No | 1,012 | $895 |
| Grotesque-Sled | Yes | 971 | $112 |
| Queasy-Airship | Yes | 900 | $103 |
| Healthy-Designer | No | 792 | $701 |
| 0x5d25d532… | No | 697 | $617 |
| Hospitable-Goose | No | 677 | $599 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:03 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.8% | $35 |
| Oct 24, 05:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 84.6% | $85 |
| Oct 24, 05:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 12:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 09:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 06:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 06:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 02:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.1% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 88.5%. Next is Yes at 11.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-apple-purchase-memory-cxmt-chips-in-2026-20260630171913147?via=bro
$30.9K in total volume, with $451 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
No, priced at 88.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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