As of October 24, 2026, 06:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 71.7% in Will Arc launch a token by ___ ? — $619.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 71.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.5 pts; past week: -6.9 pts; past month: +1.4 pts.
Since May 12, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 50.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 71.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 69.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 68.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 71.1% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 67.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 71.7% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 71.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 72¢ | 71.7% | +4.5 pts | $7.4K | 1.2% |
| June 30, 2027 | 42¢ | 41.5% | -2.5 pts | $20.1K | 3.2% |
| December 31, 2026 | 8¢ | 8.5% | — | $184.6K | 29.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 71¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$619.2K has been traded on this event in total, $1.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution source: https://x.com/arc
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 701 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pricey-Tofu | No | 701 | $198 |
| Similar-Resident | Yes | 230 | $165 |
| Dismal-Bed | Yes | 213 | $152 |
| Adolescent-Guilty | No | 200 | $57 |
| Skinny-Stitch | No | 200 | $57 |
| Outlandish-Hardening | Yes | 193 | $139 |
| Productive-Cappelletti | Yes | 165 | $118 |
| Infantile-Warden | Yes | 161 | $116 |
| Cloudy-Verve | Yes | 150 | $107 |
| Apt-Sustainment | Yes | 139 | $100 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 25.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 11:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.0% | $133 |
| Oct 24, 07:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 56.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 06:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 05:44 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:43 AM ET | No | SELL | 62.1% | $124 |
| Oct 24, 05:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:42 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:42 AM ET | No | SELL | 67.0% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 04:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 71.7%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 41.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-arc-launch-a-token-by?via=bro
$619.2K in total volume, with $1.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/arc.
December 31, 2027, priced at 71.7% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
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