As of October 24, 2026, 09:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 86.5% in Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? — $2.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 86.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: +1.5 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.
Since May 28, 2026, No has traded between 50.0% and 92.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 86.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 86.0% |
No is favored at 86.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 86¢ | 86.5% | +1.5 pts | $2.0K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 14¢ | 13.5% | -1.5 pts | $2.0K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 20¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina makes Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from Peter Thiel indicating intent to seek citizenship from Argentina will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Statements from Argentina or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Peter Thiel a citizen will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Only Argentina's actually making Peter Thiel a citizen will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to statements from representatives of Argentina or Peter Thiel. This market may also resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 690 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drafty-Jewelry | No | 690 | $597 |
| Alienated-Horst | Yes | 212 | $29 |
| Frosty-Objective | Yes | 170 | $23 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 139 | $19 |
| Somber-Grit | Yes | 106 | $14 |
| Slimy-Receipt | Yes | 53 | $7 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 23 | $3 |
| Frivolous-Enquiry-Tarragon | No | 20 | $18 |
| Frail-Prayer | No | 19 | $17 |
| Gloomy-Frigate | Yes | 14 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 08:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 81.5% | $139 |
| Oct 18, 03:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 03:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.2% | $14 |
| Oct 17, 10:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $9 |
| Oct 17, 09:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.4% | $90 |
| Oct 16, 09:23 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $7 |
| Oct 16, 09:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 11:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.1% | $40 |
| Oct 15, 06:57 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.1% | $95 |
| Oct 05, 04:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 86.5%. Next is Yes at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-argentina-make-peter-thiel-a-citizen-by-december-31?via=bro
$2.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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