As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 91.0% in Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? — $13.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 91.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -2.4 pts.
Since October 27, 2025, No has traded between 46.6% and 96.7%. It opened at 71.0% and last traded at 91.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 91.0% |
No is favored at 91.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 91¢ | 91.0% | -0.1 pts | $13.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 9¢ | 9.0% | +0.1 pts | $13.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 8¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.2K has been traded on this event in total, $40 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ari Weinstein ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI. An official announcement of Ari’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Ari indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,288 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| LinusB | No | 1,288 | $1.2K |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 815 | $73 |
| Self-Assured-Tenor | No | 410 | $373 |
| Open-Plantation | Yes | 202 | $18 |
| Fragrant-Interchange | Yes | 184 | $17 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 123 | $11 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 101 | $9 |
| Overjoyed-Cranky | Yes | 84 | $8 |
| Pleasing-Elm | Yes | 64 | $6 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 62 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.8% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.2% | $2 |
| Oct 12, 10:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.2% | $49 |
| Oct 12, 04:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.1% | $0 |
| Oct 08, 07:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.2% | $13 |
| Oct 08, 07:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.8% | $1 |
| Oct 03, 03:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.1% | $2 |
| Oct 03, 03:39 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.1% | $2 |
| Oct 03, 03:39 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.7% | $10 |
| Oct 02, 04:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.1% | $12 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 91.0%. Next is Yes at 9.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ari-leave-openai-by-december-31-2026?via=bro
$13.2K in total volume, with $40 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 91.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.