As of October 24, 2026, 09:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 86.5% in Will ArrowCS eat a bug on stream by December 31? — $2.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 86.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.1 pts; past week: +2.6 pts; past month: +6.9 pts.
Since July 17, 2026, No has traded between 60.8% and 97.3%. It opened at 86.5% and last traded at 86.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 84.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 83.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 82.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 87.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 86.5% |
No is favored at 86.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 86¢ | 86.5% | -1.1 pts | $2.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 14¢ | 13.5% | +1.1 pts | $2.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 18¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ArrowCS eats a bug during any livestreams between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Eating a bug" refers to ArrowCS placing any part of the body of an insect or other arthropod (such as a cricket, ant, beetle, or similar) into his mouth and closing his mouth during a live broadcast. A qualifying bug may be alive, dead, cooked, raw, or otherwise prepared provided it is a recognizable part of the body of an insect or other arthropod. The relevant part of the body of an insect or other arthropod must be a discrete item and retain its original physical form. Processed or insect-derived products, such as insect flour, protein bars, or snacks containing ground insects, will not count. ArrowCS must close his mouth with the relevant bug inside, defined as his two lips being completely shut. Merely holding, licking, or placing a bug in the mouth without closure will not count. If he later removes the bug from his mouth after a qualifying action, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market. The full act as described above must be clearly broadcast on a livestream to qualify. Pre-recorded or edited footage that is not part of a live broadcast will not count. The resolution source for this market will be qualifying livestream footage.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 144 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 144 | $19 |
| Short-Term-Pickle | No | 115 | $99 |
| Gigantic-Graduation | No | 100 | $86 |
| Demanding-City | Yes | 61 | $8 |
| Angelic-Craw | Yes | 55 | $7 |
| Crowded-Congregation-Bracelet | No | 44 | $38 |
| Vigilant-Saloon | No | 40 | $35 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 23 | $3 |
| Squiggly-Description | Yes | 20 | $3 |
| Plump-Implementation | Yes | 20 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 02:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.1% | $7 |
| Oct 13, 11:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 13, 08:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.1% | $8 |
| Oct 12, 11:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.4% | $9 |
| Oct 11, 01:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 64.1% | $6 |
| Oct 10, 03:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.1% | $2 |
| Oct 08, 06:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $30 |
| Oct 08, 05:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.2% | $29 |
| Oct 08, 05:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.8% | $2 |
| Oct 08, 02:34 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.3% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 86.5%. Next is Yes at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-arrowcs-eat-a-bug-on-stream-by-december-31-20260715213055256?via=bro
$2.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.