As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 40.5% in Will Base launch a token by ___ ? — $8.05M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 40.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.5 pts; past month: -20.0 pts.
Since June 10, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 40.5% and 80.5%. It opened at 80.5% and last traded at 40.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 41.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 41.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 41.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 40.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 40.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 40¢ | 40.5% | — | $50.7K | 0.6% |
| June 30, 2027 | 20¢ | 20.0% | — | $27.3K | 0.3% |
| December 31, 2026 | 4¢ | 4.5% | -1.0 pts | $778.3K | 9.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 40¢ / ask 41¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.05M has been traded on this event in total, $814 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution source: https://x.com/base
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,795 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Subdued-Revenant | No | 6,795 | $4.0K |
| Unhappy-Silence | Yes | 3,003 | $1.2K |
| Glamorous-Visor | No | 2,930 | $1.7K |
| Improbable-Cormorant | Yes | 2,144 | $868 |
| Flashy-Label | Yes | 1,390 | $563 |
| Kosher-Leadership | Yes | 885 | $358 |
| Unlined-Pole | Yes | 862 | $349 |
| Wilted-Burden-Survivor | Yes | 682 | $276 |
| dima23000 | No | 537 | $320 |
| Muddy-Sloth | No | 502 | $299 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:14 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $24 |
| Oct 23, 10:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 10:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $58 |
| Oct 23, 10:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $33 |
| Oct 23, 03:38 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $27 |
| Oct 23, 01:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 07:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 40.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 20.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-base-launch-a-token-in-2025-341?via=bro
$8.05M in total volume, with $814 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/base.
December 31, 2027, priced at 40.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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