As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 55.5% in Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? — $479.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 55.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +4.0 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.
Since December 30, 2025, No has traded between 41.0% and 86.5%. It opened at 53.5% and last traded at 55.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 63.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 55.0% |
No is favored at 55.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 56¢ | 55.5% | +0.5 pts | $479.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 44¢ | 44.5% | -0.5 pts | $479.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 46¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$479.5K has been traded on this event in total, $1.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution source: https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 17,387 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sad-Catalysis | No | 17,387 | $9.6K |
| Swift-Lightning | No | 7,107 | $3.9K |
| Snarling-Text | Yes | 4,769 | $2.1K |
| Amusing-Macaroon | Yes | 3,229 | $1.4K |
| Admirable-Samurai | No | 2,793 | $1.6K |
| Smug-Appetite | Yes | 1,758 | $782 |
| Grotesque-Department | Yes | 1,730 | $770 |
| Single-Challenge | No | 1,532 | $850 |
| Grimy-Expose | Yes | 1,028 | $457 |
| Stupendous-Eddy | Yes | 1,000 | $445 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 46.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 51.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 48.9% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 48.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 48.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 48.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 02:54 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.8% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 01:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 54.0% | $124 |
| Oct 24, 01:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:32 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 42.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 55.5%. Next is Yes at 44.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026?via=bro
$479.5K in total volume, with $1.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT.
No, priced at 55.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.