As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.3% in Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? — $198.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -0.1 pts.
Since November 26, 2025, No has traded between 89.5% and 99.1%. It opened at 92.5% and last traded at 98.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 98.3% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.3% |
No is favored at 98.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.3% | — | $198.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.7% | — | $198.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$198.4K has been traded on this event in total, $150 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source: https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,313 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Woeful-Cloudburst | No | 8,313 | $8.2K |
| Harmful-Prevention | Yes | 5,059 | $86 |
| Vivacious-Availability | No | 2,932 | $2.9K |
| Nervous-Gap | Yes | 2,139 | $36 |
| Mortified-Hyena | Yes | 1,746 | $30 |
| Miserly-Avalanche | Yes | 1,514 | $26 |
| Decisive-Ejector | No | 1,084 | $1.1K |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 1,065 | $1.0K |
| momomumu | Yes | 824 | $14 |
| Adolescent-Boss | No | 544 | $535 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.6% | $146 |
| Oct 18, 08:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.4% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 09:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.4% | $2 |
| Oct 12, 04:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $9 |
| Oct 12, 04:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 10:59 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.6% | $1 |
| Oct 10, 03:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.2% | $2 |
| Oct 09, 08:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.4% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 08:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.1% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 05:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.4% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.3%. Next is Yes at 1.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-replace-sha-256-before-2027?via=bro
$198.4K in total volume, with $150 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/.
No, priced at 98.3% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.