As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑$650B at 18.5% in Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by December 31? — $92.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↑$650B, is priced at 18.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -5.0 pts; past month: -11.5 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, ↑$650B has traded between 15.5% and 65.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 18.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 22.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 18.5% |
↑$650B is favored at 18.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑$650B | 18¢ | 18.5% | — | $7.2K | 7.8% |
| ↑$700B | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $10.8K | 11.7% |
| ↓$500B | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $5.1K | 5.5% |
| ↑$1.0T | 4¢ | 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $11.2K | 12.1% |
| ↑$1.5T | 3¢ | 3.5% | — | $10.6K | 11.5% |
| ↓$400B | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.1 pts | $8.6K | 9.3% |
| ↑$800B | 3¢ | 3.1% | +0.1 pts | $9.0K | 9.7% |
| ↑$900B | 2¢ | 2.5% | -0.1 pts | $5.4K | 5.9% |
| ↑$1.25T | 2¢ | 2.3% | +0.8 pts | $13.8K | 15.0% |
| ↓$300B | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $9.3K | 10.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 17¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 27¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$92.2K has been traded on this event in total, $5 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ByteDance's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953/data
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 481 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novel-Straw-Trolley | Yes | 481 | $89 |
| Plastic-Larder | No | 305 | $248 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 229 | $187 |
| Insubstantial-Coffee | No | 150 | $122 |
| Proud-Orientation | No | 140 | $114 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 112 | $21 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 99 | $18 |
| Plastic-Duck | Yes | 84 | $16 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 77 | $63 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 40 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 02:59 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.8% | $48 |
| Oct 23, 11:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.3% | $48 |
| Oct 23, 11:06 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.7% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 10:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $48 |
| Oct 23, 10:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.1% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 12:48 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $76 |
| Oct 22, 08:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 11:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 01:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.2% | $97 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑$650B at 18.5%. Next is ↑$700B at 7.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-bytedances-valuation-hit-by-december-31-20260701011753589?via=bro
$92.2K in total volume, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953/data.
↑$650B, priced at 18.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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