As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↓$562.5B at 37.5% in Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by October 31? — $8.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↓$562.5B, is priced at 37.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -12.5 pts; past week: -12.5 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, ↓$562.5B has traded between 5.0% and 50.0%. It opened at 25.5% and last traded at 37.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 37.5% |
↓$562.5B is favored at 37.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓$562.5B | 38¢ | 37.5% | -12.5 pts | $4 | 0.1% |
| ↓$537.5B | 36¢ | 36.5% | -12.5 pts | $158 | 1.9% |
| ↑$675B | 5¢ | 4.7% | -1.2 pts | $1.5K | 18.2% |
| ↑$600B | 4¢ | 4.4% | +0.2 pts | $1.2K | 15.3% |
| ↑$750B | 3¢ | 3.4% | +0.2 pts | $655 | 8.1% |
| ↓$487.5B | 3¢ | 3.0% | +0.3 pts | $575 | 7.1% |
| ↑$625B | 2¢ | 2.0% | — | $1.6K | 20.0% |
| ↑$875B | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $1.5K | 18.1% |
| ↑$825B | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $912 | 11.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 69¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.1K has been traded on this event in total, $40 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ByteDance's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unwitting-Attenuation | Yes | 4 | $2 |
| Zigzag-Conspirator-Glee | No | 4 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.7% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 09:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 10:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $44 |
| Oct 22, 04:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 06:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $48 |
| Oct 21, 05:04 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 02:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 02:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.6% | $50 |
| Oct 19, 05:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.9% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↓$562.5B at 37.5%. Next is ↓$537.5B at 36.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-bytedances-valuation-hit-by-october-31-2026?via=bro
$8.1K in total volume, with $40 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953.
↓$562.5B, priced at 37.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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