As of October 24, 2026, 09:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.0% in Will Caedrel Reach Challenger Before the End of the Year? — $919 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.5 pts; past month: -10.5 pts.
Since August 04, 2026, No has traded between 50.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 94.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.0% |
No is favored at 94.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 94.0% | — | $919 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $919 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$919 has been traded on this event in total, $11 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve "Yes" if Caedrel reaches the Challenger rank in League of Legends solo/duo ranked queue on any server on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". "Reaching Challenger" means Caedrel's account attains the Challenger tier in the ranked solo/duo queue, as displayed in the official in-game ranked ladder or on his verified account, at any point during the market period. Reaching Challenger in flex queue does not count unless otherwise specified. The account must be one publicly identified as belonging to Caedrel and streamed or otherwise confirmed as his. Reaching Challenger on a smurf or alternate account still counts, provided it is verifiably his and he publicly demonstrates it (e.g., on stream). If Caedrel is confirmed to have reached Challenger at any point in the period — even briefly — this market resolves "Yes". The primary resolution source will be the official League of Legends ranked ladder (via the in-game client or op.gg / official Riot data for his verified account) and Caedrel's official streams or channels; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 273 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odd-Ant | Yes | 273 | $16 |
| Same-Kidney | No | 198 | $186 |
| Cumbersome-Biplane | No | 77 | $73 |
| Quizzical-Hire | No | 69 | $65 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | Yes | 50 | $3 |
| Sarcastic-Valuable | No | 40 | $38 |
| Ready-Trophy | Yes | 34 | $2 |
| Gummy-Eclipse | Yes | 20 | $1 |
| Mortified-Wetland | Yes | 20 | $1 |
| Awkward-Wrecker | No | 13 | $12 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 02:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $0 |
| Sep 30, 08:03 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.9% | $3 |
| Sep 24, 05:34 AM ET | No | SELL | 78.1% | $6 |
| Sep 16, 12:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $10 |
| Sep 16, 12:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.9% | $9 |
| Sep 12, 10:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $37 |
| Sep 08, 04:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $2 |
| Sep 07, 04:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 73.0% | $1 |
| Sep 06, 09:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 73.2% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.0%. Next is Yes at 6.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-caedrel-reach-challenger-before-the-end-of-the-year-20260803221259035?via=bro
$919 in total volume, with $11 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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