As of October 24, 2026, 08:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 82.5% in Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record? — $2.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 82.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +1.0 pts; past month: -71.0 pts.
Since January 29, 2026, No has traded between 10.0% and 84.0%. It opened at 61.5% and last traded at 82.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 82.5% |
No is favored at 82.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 82¢ | 82.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 18¢ | 17.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 23¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 29¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution source: https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 470 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warm-Love | No | 470 | $388 |
| Precious-Physical | Yes | 308 | $54 |
| Radiant-Anarchy | No | 125 | $103 |
| Imaginative-Shoes | Yes | 100 | $17 |
| Phony-Authorization | Yes | 79 | $14 |
| Starry-Accordance | No | 65 | $53 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 57 | $10 |
| Sweltering-Passion-Fragrance | Yes | 50 | $9 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 40 | $7 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | Yes | 30 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 03:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 71.0% | $7 |
| Oct 05, 01:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Sep 28, 08:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 59.0% | $9 |
| Sep 28, 08:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 48.3% | $55 |
| Sep 28, 08:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 27.9% | $15 |
| Sep 28, 08:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 17.4% | $50 |
| Sep 23, 11:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 86.0% | $14 |
| Sep 17, 11:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 10.0% | $1 |
| Sep 09, 02:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 11.0% | $1 |
| Sep 08, 08:42 AM ET | No | SELL | 9.4% | $22 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 82.5%. Next is Yes at 17.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-canadas-drop-in-population-in-2026-be-the-largest-on-record?via=bro
$2.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start.
No, priced at 82.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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