As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 36.5% in Will Catena launch a token by ___? — $12.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 36.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -20.5 pts; past week: -22.5 pts; past month: -27.5 pts.
Since June 26, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 34.5% and 78.0%. It opened at 67.5% and last traded at 36.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 36.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 36.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 36¢ | 36.5% | -20.5 pts | $1.6K | 12.9% |
| September 30, 2027 | 34¢ | 34.0% | -21.0 pts | $2.5K | 20.2% |
| June 30, 2027 | 32¢ | 31.5% | -11.0 pts | $1.7K | 13.9% |
| March 31, 2027 | 24¢ | 23.5% | -11.0 pts | $1.4K | 11.5% |
| December 31, 2026 | 22¢ | 21.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.2K | 17.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 33¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.3K has been traded on this event in total, $1.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Catena officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Catena will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Catena (https://x.com/catena_labs), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution source: https://x.com/catena_labs
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 129 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 129 | $47 |
| Authorized-Mandolin | No | 75 | $48 |
| Speedy-Bartender | No | 59 | $37 |
| Mean-Outfielder | No | 52 | $33 |
| Amazing-Pad | Yes | 20 | $7 |
| Delectable-Waistband-Star | Yes | 15 | $5 |
| Stale-Cashew | Yes | 11 | $4 |
| Plump-Implementation | Yes | 7 | $3 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 5 | $2 |
| Damp-Thigh | No | 3 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.8% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 01:25 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 34.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 12:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 39.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 11:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $37 |
| Oct 24, 11:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 11:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 11:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $42 |
| Oct 24, 11:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 08:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 36.5%. Next is September 30, 2027 at 34.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-catena-launch-a-token-by?via=bro
$12.3K in total volume, with $1.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/catena_labs.
December 31, 2027, priced at 36.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
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