As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.8% in Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — $44.75M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -1.5 pts.
Since July 24, 2025, No has traded between 56.5% and 98.0%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 97.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.8% |
No is favored at 97.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 97.8% | — | $44.75M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 2.2% | — | $44.75M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$44.75M has been traded on this event in total, $32.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,222,650 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radiant-Birdhouse | Yes | 1,222,650 | $27.5K |
| Babyish-Workplace | Yes | 619,077 | $13.9K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 583,373 | $13.1K |
| Worn-Tanker | No | 482,352 | $471.5K |
| Different-Coconut | Yes | 460,245 | $10.4K |
| Quizzical-Hire | No | 458,673 | $448.4K |
| Worthwhile-Piece | No | 401,247 | $392.2K |
| Warlike-Horn | No | 390,345 | $381.6K |
| Precious-Radar-Anchovy | Yes | 351,466 | $7.9K |
| Exhausted-Tanktop | No | 323,446 | $316.2K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:16 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 04:54 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $501 |
| Oct 24, 04:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $502 |
| Oct 24, 04:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $511 |
| Oct 24, 04:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $512 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $522 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $523 |
| Oct 24, 04:49 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $534 |
| Oct 24, 04:49 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $535 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.8%. Next is Yes at 2.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027?via=bro
$44.75M in total volume, with $32.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 97.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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