As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.5% in Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? — $3.54M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +1.0 pts; past month: -1.0 pts.
Since March 17, 2026, No has traded between 70.5% and 90.5%. It opened at 70.5% and last traded at 89.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.5% |
No is favored at 89.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 90¢ | 89.5% | -1.0 pts | $3.54M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 10¢ | 10.5% | +1.0 pts | $3.54M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.54M has been traded on this event in total, $3.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 250,214 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worthwhile-Piece | No | 250,214 | $223.9K |
| Starchy-Webinar-Croup | No | 236,467 | $211.6K |
| Radiant-Birdhouse | Yes | 198,023 | $20.8K |
| Round-Resolution | No | 132,023 | $118.2K |
| Stylish-Castle | Yes | 124,441 | $13.1K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 54,280 | $5.7K |
| Forthright-Kingfish | Yes | 53,054 | $5.6K |
| Babyish-Examination | Yes | 47,513 | $5.0K |
| Definite-Brewer | No | 46,332 | $41.5K |
| Constant-Flag | Yes | 40,000 | $4.2K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:46 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $105 |
| Oct 24, 01:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $60 |
| Oct 24, 01:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $45 |
| Oct 24, 10:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $500 |
| Oct 24, 08:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:33 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $1.3K |
| Oct 24, 04:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.5%. Next is Yes at 10.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027?via=bro
$3.54M in total volume, with $3.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 89.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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