As of October 24, 2026, 06:28 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.5% in Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? — $518.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -3.0 pts.
Since April 01, 2026, No has traded between 84.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 85.0% and last traded at 94.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.5% |
No is favored at 94.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 94.5% | +1.0 pts | $518.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $518.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$518.6K has been traded on this event in total, $1.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 55,664 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limp-Tablecloth | No | 55,664 | $52.6K |
| Imperfect-Council | Yes | 35,102 | $1.9K |
| Crazy-Hydrant | Yes | 24,285 | $1.3K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 19,982 | $1.1K |
| Kosher-Curtain | Yes | 13,443 | $739 |
| Radiant-Birdhouse | Yes | 11,979 | $659 |
| Handsome-Midden | No | 11,204 | $10.6K |
| Ondra | Yes | 9,913 | $545 |
| Hospitable-Silver | Yes | 8,782 | $483 |
| Feisty-Lead | No | 8,000 | $7.6K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 08:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 04:04 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.2% | $74 |
| Oct 23, 03:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 06:14 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.5%. Next is Yes at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027?via=bro
$518.6K in total volume, with $1.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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