As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 14.5% in Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...? — $13.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 14.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past month: +2.5 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 5.0% and 63.0%. It opened at 45.0% and last traded at 13.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 13.0% |
June 30, 2027 is favored at 14.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 14¢ | 14.5% | +1.5 pts | $10.2K | 78.0% |
| December 31, 2026 | 7¢ | 7.0% | — | $2.4K | 18.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 18¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,949 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Each-Summary | No | 8,949 | $7.7K |
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 3,466 | $503 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 2,907 | $421 |
| Rex416 | Yes | 626 | $91 |
| Stimulating-Mailing | Yes | 598 | $87 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 500 | $72 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 240 | $35 |
| Puzzling-Haversack | Yes | 170 | $25 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 120 | $17 |
| Pungent-Washbasin | Yes | 100 | $14 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 06:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.2% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 06:56 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 06:46 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 06:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 05:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.4% | $7 |
| Oct 17, 01:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $5 |
| Oct 14, 08:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $17 |
| Oct 14, 08:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $20 |
| Oct 14, 08:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $10 |
| Oct 14, 08:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 14.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-clarence-thomas-announce-his-retirement-byptptpt-20260701190627804?via=bro
$13.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
June 30, 2027, priced at 14.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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