Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2028 at 34.5% in Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___? — $438.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $295.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2028
34%
A 34.5% price implies roughly a 34-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −1.0 pts30D +6.0 pts
December 31, 202834.5%
December 31, 202714.5%
Bid
34¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 24, 2026: 21.5% – 67.0% · Opened at 45.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
Category
Culture, Science
Scheduled end
December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$438.9K
Volume (24h)
$295
Liquidity
$33.2K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31, 2028 — 34.5%
Resolution source
https://www.claymath.org

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2028, is priced at 34.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: +6.0 pts.

Since July 24, 2026, December 31, 2028 has traded between 21.5% and 67.0%. It opened at 45.0% and last traded at 34.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202635.5%
Oct 18, 202635.5%
Oct 19, 202635.5%
Oct 20, 202635.0%
Oct 22, 202635.5%
Oct 23, 202634.5%
Oct 24, 202634.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2028 is favored at 34.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202834¢34.5%—$60.3K13.7%
December 31, 202714¢14.5%+1.0 pts$89.4K20.4%
December 31, 20263¢3.5%—$289.3K65.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 34¢ / ask 35¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$438.9K has been traded on this event in total, $295 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,934 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Failing-ObsidianNo5,934$3.9K
Nutty-ImpostorYes4,070$1.4K
Hollow-BedYes3,472$1.2K
Purple-FruitYes2,962$1.0K
Cuddly-PillarNo2,907$1.9K
Key-SovereigntyNo1,712$1.1K
Ajar-SportsmanNo1,611$1.1K
Teeming-MinNo1,000$655
Sparse-CookieYes860$297
Kaleidoscopic-HemisphereYes844$291

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.1K at 97.5%BUY No — $956 at 96.9%SELL No — $575 at 96.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:49 PM ETYesBUY35.0%$7
Oct 24, 02:06 PM ETNoSELL86.0%$199
Oct 23, 07:44 PM ETYesSELL34.0%$15
Oct 23, 01:01 AM ETNoSELL96.3%$16
Oct 22, 04:23 PM ETNoSELL86.0%$326
Oct 22, 11:05 AM ETNoBUY97.2%$5
Oct 21, 11:20 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$1
Oct 21, 11:19 PM ETYesSELL13.0%$29
Oct 21, 04:56 AM ETNoSELL64.0%$32
Oct 20, 11:22 PM ETYesSELL35.0%$14

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2028 at 34.5%. Next is December 31, 2027 at 14.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-cmi-declare-a-millennium-prize-problem-solved-by-20260723160122979?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___??

$438.9K in total volume, with $295 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org.

What is the most likely outcome of Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2028, priced at 34.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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