As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2028 at 34.5% in Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___? — $438.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2028, is priced at 34.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: +6.0 pts.
Since July 24, 2026, December 31, 2028 has traded between 21.5% and 67.0%. It opened at 45.0% and last traded at 34.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 35.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 35.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 35.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 35.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 34.5% |
December 31, 2028 is favored at 34.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2028 | 34¢ | 34.5% | — | $60.3K | 13.7% |
| December 31, 2027 | 14¢ | 14.5% | +1.0 pts | $89.4K | 20.4% |
| December 31, 2026 | 3¢ | 3.5% | — | $289.3K | 65.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 34¢ / ask 35¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$438.9K has been traded on this event in total, $295 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,934 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Failing-Obsidian | No | 5,934 | $3.9K |
| Nutty-Impostor | Yes | 4,070 | $1.4K |
| Hollow-Bed | Yes | 3,472 | $1.2K |
| Purple-Fruit | Yes | 2,962 | $1.0K |
| Cuddly-Pillar | No | 2,907 | $1.9K |
| Key-Sovereignty | No | 1,712 | $1.1K |
| Ajar-Sportsman | No | 1,611 | $1.1K |
| Teeming-Min | No | 1,000 | $655 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 860 | $297 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 844 | $291 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:49 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $199 |
| Oct 23, 07:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 34.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 01:01 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.3% | $16 |
| Oct 22, 04:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $326 |
| Oct 22, 11:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.2% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 11:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 11:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $29 |
| Oct 21, 04:56 AM ET | No | SELL | 64.0% | $32 |
| Oct 20, 11:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 35.0% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2028 at 34.5%. Next is December 31, 2027 at 14.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-cmi-declare-a-millennium-prize-problem-solved-by-20260723160122979?via=bro
$438.9K in total volume, with $295 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org.
December 31, 2028, priced at 34.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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