As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2028 at 29.5% in Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___? — $28.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2028, is priced at 29.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.
Since September 09, 2026, December 31, 2028 has traded between 27.5% and 50.0%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 29.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 29.5% |
December 31, 2028 is favored at 29.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2028 | 30¢ | 29.5% | — | $4.2K | 15.1% |
| December 31, 2027 | 12¢ | 11.5% | — | $15.1K | 54.0% |
| December 31, 2026 | 3¢ | 3.5% | -0.1 pts | $8.7K | 30.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 29¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$28.0K has been traded on this event in total, $100 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 80 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hard-Boat | No | 80 | $56 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 77 | $54 |
| Scary-Neck-Vascular | Yes | 60 | $18 |
| Secondary-Flanker | Yes | 40 | $12 |
| 0x46299616… | Yes | 30 | $9 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 28 | $20 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 22 | $16 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 20 | $6 |
| Apt-Antecedent | Yes | 20 | $6 |
| 0x4e84ce15… | Yes | 20 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 10:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 10:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.5% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 04:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 04:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 04:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 04:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 04:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 04:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 04:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 04:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2028 at 29.5%. Next is December 31, 2027 at 11.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-cmi-declare-the-navier-stokes-problem-solved-by?via=bro
$28.0K in total volume, with $100 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org.
December 31, 2028, priced at 29.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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