Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2028 at 29.5% in Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___? — $28.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $100.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2028
30%
A 29.5% price implies roughly a 30-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −1.0 pts30D −6.0 pts
December 31, 202829.5%
December 31, 202711.5%
Bid
29¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 09, 2026: 27.5% – 50.0% · Opened at 46.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?
Category
AI, Math, Tech, Culture, Science, AI Achievements, CMI, Millennium Prize
Scheduled end
December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$28.0K
Volume (24h)
$100
Liquidity
$46.2K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31, 2028 — 29.5%
Resolution source
https://www.claymath.org

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2028, is priced at 29.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.

Since September 09, 2026, December 31, 2028 has traded between 27.5% and 50.0%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 29.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202630.5%
Oct 16, 202630.5%
Oct 18, 202630.5%
Oct 19, 202630.5%
Oct 20, 202630.5%
Oct 24, 202629.5%
Oct 24, 202629.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2028 is favored at 29.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202830¢29.5%—$4.2K15.1%
December 31, 202712¢11.5%—$15.1K54.0%
December 31, 20263¢3.5%-0.1 pts$8.7K30.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 29¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$28.0K has been traded on this event in total, $100 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 80 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Hard-BoatNo80$56
Snappy-RoosterNo77$54
Scary-Neck-VascularYes60$18
Secondary-FlankerYes40$12
0x46299616…Yes30$9
Perfumed-MoatNo28$20
Belated-GlueNo22$16
Required-HornYes20$6
Apt-AntecedentYes20$6
0x4e84ce15…Yes20$6

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $891 at 83.0%BUY No — $461 at 95.0%SELL No — $295 at 73.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 10:27 PM ETYesSELL3.2%$2
Oct 23, 10:27 PM ETYesSELL3.5%$2
Oct 22, 04:43 AM ETYesSELL30.0%$2
Oct 22, 04:43 AM ETNoBUY70.0%$4
Oct 22, 04:43 AM ETNoBUY70.0%$4
Oct 22, 04:43 AM ETNoBUY70.0%$4
Oct 22, 04:43 AM ETNoBUY70.0%$4
Oct 22, 04:43 AM ETNoBUY70.0%$4
Oct 22, 04:43 AM ETYesSELL30.0%$2
Oct 22, 04:43 AM ETNoBUY70.0%$4

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December 31, 2028 29.5% · 24H VOL $87.4K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2028 at 29.5%. Next is December 31, 2027 at 11.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-cmi-declare-the-navier-stokes-problem-solved-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___??

$28.0K in total volume, with $100 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org.

What is the most likely outcome of Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2028, priced at 29.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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