Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 10.5% in Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___? — $39.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027
10%
A 10.5% price implies roughly a 10-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
30D −3.0 pts
December 31, 202710.5%
December 31, 20261.8%
Bid
10¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 13, 2026: 10.5% – 47.0% · Opened at 47.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?
Category
Culture, Science
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$39.8K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$42.1K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027 — 10.5%
Resolution source
https://www.claymath.org

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 10.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past month: -3.0 pts.

Since August 13, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 10.5% and 47.0%. It opened at 47.0% and last traded at 10.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202610.5%
Oct 18, 202610.5%
Oct 19, 202610.5%
Oct 20, 202610.5%
Oct 22, 202610.5%
Oct 23, 202610.5%
Oct 24, 202610.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2027 is favored at 10.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202710¢10.5%—$27.9K70.0%
December 31, 20262¢1.8%—$12.0K30.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$39.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Riemann Hypothesis, or otherwise officially declares the Riemann Hypothesis solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that the Riemann Hypothesis has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Riemann Hypothesis has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,387 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Simple-ViolationNo5,387$4.8K
Few-PreventionYes5,146$540
Composed-EmbellishmentYes1,999$210
Glass-TypewriterNo1,092$977
Barren-LaughterNo700$626
Hideous-RacerNo500$448
Harsh-PrefixYes253$27
Fresh-Tailspin-ObjectiveNo200$179
Dense-WhipYes160$17
Insecure-Sparrow-RoosterYes64$7

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $2.8K at 88.0%BUY No — $1,000 at 97.1%SELL No — $896 at 89.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 22, 05:26 PM ETNoSELL97.2%$380
Oct 18, 01:30 AM ETNoSELL89.0%$4
Oct 13, 11:00 PM ETYesSELL10.0%$0
Oct 13, 10:59 PM ETYesSELL10.0%$0
Oct 13, 07:43 PM ETYesSELL2.2%$3
Oct 13, 06:39 PM ETNoSELL97.9%$82
Oct 13, 12:42 AM ETYesBUY11.0%$5
Oct 13, 12:42 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$5
Oct 13, 12:42 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$5
Oct 13, 12:42 AM ETNoSELL89.0%$896

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 10.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 1.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-cmi-declare-the-riemann-hypothesis-solved-by-20260812114814549?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___??

$39.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org.

What is the most likely outcome of Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2027, priced at 10.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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