As of October 24, 2026, 08:04 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 56.0% in Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? — $31.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 56.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: +5.0 pts; past month: -3.0 pts.
Since January 13, 2026, Yes has traded between 34.0% and 79.5%. It opened at 34.0% and last traded at 57.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 51.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 57.0% |
Yes is favored at 56.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56¢ | 56.0% | -1.5 pts | $31.4K | 100.0% |
| No | 44¢ | 44.0% | +1.5 pts | $31.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 55¢ / ask 57¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$31.4K has been traded on this event in total, $331 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,099 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near-Familiar | Yes | 3,099 | $1.7K |
| Impassioned-Chef-Steward | No | 1,342 | $590 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | No | 826 | $364 |
| Frozen-Car | Yes | 822 | $460 |
| Daring-Pirate | No | 701 | $308 |
| Little-Gold | No | 600 | $264 |
| Instructive-Grease | Yes | 532 | $298 |
| Obvious-Geyser-Cutlet | No | 470 | $207 |
| Gaseous-Tennis | Yes | 460 | $257 |
| Bad-Fool-Enrollment | Yes | 409 | $229 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 42.0% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 06:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 42.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 01:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 62.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 01:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 42.2% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 01:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 59.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 01:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 58.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 11:34 AM ET | No | SELL | 43.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 44.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 10:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 43.8% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 10:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 44.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 56.0%. Next is No at 44.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-democrats-win-all-core-four-senate-races?via=bro
$31.4K in total volume, with $331 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Yes, priced at 56.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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