As of October 24, 2026, 07:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 46.0% in Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...? — $85.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 46.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +30.5 pts; past month: +31.5 pts.
Since December 30, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 9.0% and 80.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 44.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 16.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 44.5% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 46.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 46¢ | 46.0% | +0.5 pts | $10.9K | 12.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 52¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$85.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.
Resolution source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 157 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawful-Arithmetic | No | 157 | $85 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 98 | $45 |
| Treasured-Champion | Yes | 65 | $30 |
| True-Highlight | No | 59 | $32 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 54 | $25 |
| Worse-Haven | No | 53 | $29 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow | Yes | 41 | $19 |
| Mixed-Mousse | No | 38 | $20 |
| Monstrous-Dew | Yes | 38 | $17 |
| Required-Saffron | No | 29 | $16 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 11:12 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 11:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $4 |
| Oct 15, 04:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 03:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $4 |
| Oct 04, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $1 |
| Oct 04, 02:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $1 |
| Oct 03, 01:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $8 |
| Sep 27, 05:36 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $20 |
| Sep 23, 03:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $4 |
| Sep 21, 03:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.7% | $27 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 46.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-el-salvador-hold-1b-of-btc-by-by?via=bro
$85.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador.
December 31, 2026, priced at 46.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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