As of October 24, 2026, 08:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $9B at 89.5% in Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Mounjaro sales be above __? — $4.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $9B, is priced at 89.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.5 pts; past week: -5.0 pts.
Since October 14, 2026, $9B has traded between 80.5% and 95.0%. It opened at 80.5% and last traded at 89.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.5% |
$9B is favored at 89.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $9B | 90¢ | 89.5% | -3.5 pts | $933 | 21.3% |
| $10B | 82¢ | 81.5% | -7.5 pts | $1.5K | 33.8% |
| $11B | 54¢ | 53.5% | -1.0 pts | $355 | 8.1% |
| $12B | 10¢ | 9.5% | -1.0 pts | $544 | 12.4% |
| $13B | 9¢ | 9.0% | -1.5 pts | $1.1K | 24.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 9¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 94¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.4K has been traded on this event in total, $220 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 09:30 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eli Lilly's Mounjaro total sales for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, are above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 270 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attractive-Stamina | Yes | 270 | $242 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 177 | $19 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 80 | $72 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 61 | $6 |
| Evil-Row | No | 29 | $3 |
| Apt-Antecedent | No | 20 | $2 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | No | 20 | $2 |
| Irresponsible-Chord-Hunter | No | 20 | $2 |
| Wretched-Myth-Downfall | No | 20 | $2 |
| Impassioned-Chastity | No | 18 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:48 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 90.1% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 06:48 AM ET | No | BUY | 7.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:48 AM ET | No | BUY | 7.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 02:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 7.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 06:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $19 |
| Oct 22, 02:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 02:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $19 |
| Oct 21, 01:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 04:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.0% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 01:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 10.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is $9B at 89.5%. Next is $10B at 81.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-eli-lilly-lly-q3-mounjaro-sales-be-above-20261008120103000?via=bro
$4.4K in total volume, with $220 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 09:30 AM ET.
$9B, priced at 89.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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