As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.2% in Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? — $27.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: +0.7 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 78.0% and 99.2%. It opened at 88.0% and last traded at 98.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 99.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 99.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 99.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.1% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.2% |
No is favored at 98.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.2% | +1.0 pts | $27.9K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.8% | -1.0 pts | $27.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$27.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,359 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| jsmp1 | No | 2,359 | $2.3K |
| Lovable-Score | Yes | 1,424 | $26 |
| Ill-Fated-Shorts | No | 866 | $851 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 626 | $11 |
| Wordy-Temptress | No | 568 | $557 |
| Lumpy-Strip | No | 500 | $491 |
| Thin-Radiosonde | Yes | 376 | $7 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 326 | $6 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 320 | $6 |
| Weighty-Highway | Yes | 300 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 10:19 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.1% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 04:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.1% | $258 |
| Oct 19, 12:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.9% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 05:50 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.9% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 01:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.2% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 12:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.8% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 12:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $2 |
| Oct 15, 12:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.9% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 01:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 01:25 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.8% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.2%. Next is Yes at 1.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-elon-musk-announce-presidential-run-before-2027?via=bro
$27.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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