As of October 24, 2026, 08:21 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.2% in Will Elon register any party before 2027? — $7.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts; past week: -0.4 pts; past month: -2.8 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 52.8% and 97.5%. It opened at 71.5% and last traded at 95.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.5% |
No is favored at 95.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 95.2% | -0.4 pts | $7.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 4.8% | +0.4 pts | $7.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,680 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frightening-Undertaker | Yes | 2,680 | $129 |
| Adventurous-Safari | No | 1,367 | $1.3K |
| Peppery-Capital | No | 725 | $690 |
| Notable-Tin | No | 351 | $334 |
| Fluffy-Settler | No | 197 | $187 |
| Dreary-Main | Yes | 138 | $7 |
| Straight-Apprehension | No | 136 | $129 |
| Common-Tributary | No | 133 | $126 |
| Supportive-Divalent | Yes | 107 | $5 |
| Gigantic-Lover | No | 105 | $100 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 05:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.3% | $19 |
| Oct 08, 09:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.8% | $18 |
| Sep 29, 01:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.7% | $0 |
| Sep 27, 04:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.8% | $1 |
| Sep 24, 01:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.8% | $6 |
| Sep 24, 01:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.8% | $62 |
| Sep 16, 02:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.8% | $20 |
| Sep 15, 05:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.4% | $5 |
| Sep 06, 07:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.2% | $6 |
| Aug 25, 11:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.2%. Next is Yes at 4.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-elon-register-any-party-before-2027?via=bro
$7.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.2% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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