As of October 24, 2026, 06:37 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 53.0% in Will France pass a national budget by December 31? — $20.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 53.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: -3.5 pts; past month: +15.0 pts.
Since March 27, 2026, Yes has traded between 27.0% and 60.0%. It opened at 47.5% and last traded at 52.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 55.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 54.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 52.0% |
Yes is favored at 53.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53¢ | 53.0% | +2.0 pts | $20.3K | 100.0% |
| No | 47¢ | 47.0% | -2.0 pts | $20.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 51¢ / ask 55¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$20.3K has been traded on this event in total, $503 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 05:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying budget must provide funding for the entire year 2027. Special or emergency funding bills will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, specifically the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) (journal-officiel.gouv.fr). However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,207 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| CherryB16 | Yes | 3,207 | $1.7K |
| Unfit-Hardboard | No | 1,379 | $648 |
| Mundane-Hood | Yes | 943 | $500 |
| Pastel-Browser | No | 781 | $367 |
| Pale-Semicolon | No | 600 | $282 |
| Immediate-Machine | No | 400 | $188 |
| Overlooked-Guilty | Yes | 236 | $125 |
| Tidy-Hull-Arrogance | No | 176 | $83 |
| Distinct-Investment | No | 169 | $79 |
| Surprised-Article | No | 162 | $76 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 45.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 09:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 56.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 47.0% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 05:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 47.0% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 03:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 44.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 03:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 11:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 47.0% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 06:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 54.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 06:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 47.2% | $79 |
| Oct 23, 04:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 50.0% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 53.0%. Next is No at 47.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-france-pass-a-national-budget-by-december-31?via=bro
$20.3K in total volume, with $503 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 05:59 PM ET.
Yes, priced at 53.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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