As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 86.0% in Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? — $9.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 86.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.5 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.
Since June 09, 2026, Yes has traded between 54.5% and 93.0%. It opened at 54.5% and last traded at 86.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.0% |
Yes is favored at 86.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 86¢ | 86.0% | — | $9.4K | 100.0% |
| No | 14¢ | 14.0% | — | $9.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 87¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.4K has been traded on this event in total, $5 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 22, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,150 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Known-Use | No | 1,150 | $161 |
| Mellow-Fork | No | 844 | $118 |
| Tiny-Male | Yes | 631 | $542 |
| Mature-Monsoon | Yes | 500 | $430 |
| Pitiful-Logistics | Yes | 285 | $245 |
| Yellow-Inequality | Yes | 232 | $200 |
| Ideal-Bread | Yes | 200 | $172 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 143 | $20 |
| Handy-Ruffle | Yes | 104 | $89 |
| Torn-Sleuth | No | 100 | $14 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 85.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 01:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 85.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 05:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 86.0% | $30 |
| Oct 21, 03:46 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 84.4% | $84 |
| Oct 21, 01:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 16.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 01:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 85.8% | $40 |
| Oct 21, 12:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 82.0% | $41 |
| Oct 21, 12:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 81.0% | $40 |
| Oct 21, 12:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 16.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 06:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 16.5% | $244 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 86.0%. Next is No at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-futuro-nazionale-get-at-least-3-of-the-vote-in-the-next-italian-general-elections-20260609164706854?via=bro
$9.4K in total volume, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 22, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/.
Yes, priced at 86.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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