As of October 24, 2026, 08:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 82.5% in Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? — $2.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 82.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.5 pts; past month: -5.0 pts.
Since June 09, 2026, Yes has traded between 41.0% and 87.5%. It opened at 45.5% and last traded at 82.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 82.5% |
Yes is favored at 82.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 82¢ | 82.5% | — | $2.8K | 100.0% |
| No | 18¢ | 17.5% | — | $2.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 81¢ / ask 84¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.8K has been traded on this event in total, $5 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 22, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market. If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 510 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mellow-Fork | No | 510 | $89 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | No | 405 | $71 |
| Handy-Ruffle | Yes | 371 | $306 |
| Mature-Monsoon | Yes | 275 | $226 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 195 | $161 |
| Elaborate-Height | No | 139 | $24 |
| Bumpy-Quiet | Yes | 131 | $108 |
| Somber-Wingtip | No | 85 | $15 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | Yes | 60 | $49 |
| 0x914e501e… | Yes | 53 | $44 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 84.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 04:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 81.0% | $81 |
| Oct 23, 04:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 81.0% | $81 |
| Oct 23, 04:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 82.3% | $82 |
| Oct 23, 04:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 83.0% | $124 |
| Oct 23, 04:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 15.4% | $78 |
| Oct 10, 05:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 83.0% | $24 |
| Oct 10, 05:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 84.0% | $25 |
| Oct 06, 07:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 19.0% | $5 |
| Oct 04, 12:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 18.6% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 82.5%. Next is No at 17.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-futuro-nazionale-get-more-votes-than-lega-in-the-next-italian-general-elections-20260609154254296?via=bro
$2.8K in total volume, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 22, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/.
Yes, priced at 82.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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