As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 86.0% in Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...? — $10.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 86.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +29.5 pts; past month: +55.5 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, October 31 has traded between 18.0% and 85.5%. It opened at 18.5% and last traded at 85.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.5% |
October 31 is favored at 86.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 86¢ | 86.0% | +0.5 pts | $7.5K | 71.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 87¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$10.4K has been traded on this event in total, $94 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source. This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Resolution source: https://gasprices.aaa.com/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 884 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teeming-Puppet | Yes | 884 | $760 |
| Colorless-Compulsion | Yes | 534 | $460 |
| Blond-Wriggler | No | 495 | $69 |
| Enchanting-Texture | No | 423 | $59 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 353 | $49 |
| Angelic-Craw | Yes | 295 | $254 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 235 | $33 |
| Calculating-Skirt | No | 212 | $30 |
| Unsightly-Puma | No | 200 | $28 |
| Expensive-Arrow-Nightclub | Yes | 79 | $68 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 87.0% | $69 |
| Oct 24, 10:46 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 87.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 85.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 08:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 86.0% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 09:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 13.8% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 07:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 14.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 10:06 AM ET | No | SELL | 14.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 10:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 22.5% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 08:16 PM ET | No | SELL | 17.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 08:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.3% | $12 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 86.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-gas-be-below-3pt75-in-any-state-onptptpt?via=bro
$10.4K in total volume, with $94 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
October 31, priced at 86.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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