As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↓ $4.20 at 18.0% in Will gas hit __ by end of October? — $6.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↓ $4.20, is priced at 18.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -25.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, ↓ $4.20 has traded between 18.0% and 57.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 18.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 18.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 18.5% |
↓ $4.20 is favored at 18.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $4.20 | 18¢ | 18.0% | -0.5 pts | $364 | 5.9% |
| ↑ $4.50 | 12¢ | 11.5% | +0.5 pts | $192 | 3.1% |
| ↑ $4.60 | 8¢ | 8.5% | -0.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| ↑ $4.70 | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $200 | 3.2% |
| ↓ $4.00 | 5¢ | 5.3% | -0.1 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| ↑ $4.80 | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $800 | 12.9% |
| ↓ $3.80 | 2¢ | 2.4% | -0.1 pts | $557 | 9.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 24¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$6.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and October 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price for options marked ↑ (High), or equal to or below the listed price for options marked ↓ (Low). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.907, this market will use $3.90 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Resolution source: https://gasprices.aaa.com/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 107 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serpentine-Illusion | No | 107 | $87 |
| Expensive-Arrow-Nightclub | Yes | 58 | $10 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 49 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 11:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $192 |
| Oct 22, 12:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 50.0% | $50 |
| Oct 21, 09:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 09:25 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.6% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 06:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 79.0% | $25 |
| Oct 21, 06:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 79.0% | $20 |
| Oct 10, 08:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $80 |
| Oct 09, 06:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $10 |
| Oct 08, 03:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $93 |
| Oct 05, 05:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 73.0% | $22 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↓ $4.20 at 18.0%. Next is ↑ $4.50 at 11.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-gas-hit-by-end-of-october?via=bro
$6.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
↓ $4.20, priced at 18.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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