As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 13.0% in Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...? — $95.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 13.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past month: -3.5 pts.
Since October 27, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 5.5% and 76.5%. It opened at 76.5% and last traded at 13.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 13.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 13.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 13.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 13.5% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 13.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 13¢ | 13.0% | -0.5 pts | $63.9K | 66.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 14¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$95.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,276 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nautical-Placement | No | 5,276 | $4.6K |
| Ample-Instance | Yes | 3,440 | $447 |
| Sentimental-Quest | No | 1,269 | $1.1K |
| Winding-Daylight | No | 1,068 | $929 |
| Focused-Rostrum | Yes | 836 | $109 |
| Belgaron | No | 739 | $643 |
| Medium-Admission | Yes | 670 | $87 |
| Warlike-Trailpatrol | Yes | 570 | $74 |
| Tense-Fort | Yes | 536 | $70 |
| Big-Hearted-Patrol | Yes | 350 | $46 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $34 |
| Oct 22, 05:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $17 |
| Oct 22, 05:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.7% | $87 |
| Oct 22, 05:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 09:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 07:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $89 |
| Oct 21, 07:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 07:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 21, 07:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $17 |
| Oct 21, 07:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $35 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 13.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-gavin-newsom-announce-presidential-run-by?via=bro
$95.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 13.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.