As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.9% in Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? — $15.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -1.7 pts.
Since January 16, 2026, No has traded between 70.5% and 97.0%. It opened at 70.5% and last traded at 94.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.9% |
No is favored at 94.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 94.9% | -0.1 pts | $15.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.1% | +0.1 pts | $15.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$15.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,367 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medium-Session | No | 3,367 | $3.2K |
| Hard-Norm | Yes | 1,500 | $76 |
| Distinct-Goggles | Yes | 885 | $45 |
| Guilty-Spring | Yes | 324 | $17 |
| Fluffy-Settler | No | 210 | $200 |
| Weekly-Rating | Yes | 200 | $10 |
| Interesting-Randomization | Yes | 134 | $7 |
| Distinct-Kale | No | 110 | $104 |
| Major-Brush | Yes | 105 | $5 |
| Black-Woodshed | Yes | 93 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 04:12 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $1 |
| Oct 10, 08:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.3% | $2 |
| Sep 03, 06:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $1 |
| Sep 02, 03:45 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.5% | $5 |
| Aug 27, 05:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.3% | $5 |
| Aug 26, 04:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 87.7% | $2 |
| Aug 23, 11:09 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.5% | $9 |
| Aug 18, 12:07 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.2% | $0 |
| Aug 18, 12:05 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.2% | $0 |
| Jul 25, 04:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.3% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.9%. Next is Yes at 5.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-george-r-r-martin-announce-the-winds-of-winter-in-2026?via=bro
$15.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.9% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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