As of October 24, 2026, 07:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↓$4B at 49.0% in Will Glean's valuation hit __ by December 31? — $67.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↓$4B, is priced at 49.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.0 pts; past week: +9.0 pts; past month: +9.0 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, ↓$4B has traded between 5.5% and 69.0%. It opened at 15.0% and last traded at 49.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 44.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 49.0% |
↓$4B is favored at 49.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓$4B | 49¢ | 49.0% | +5.0 pts | $11.0K | 16.4% |
| ↓$5B | 46¢ | 46.0% | — | $15.6K | 23.2% |
| ↓$6B | 44¢ | 44.0% | -19.5 pts | $4.4K | 6.5% |
| ↓$5.5B | 30¢ | 30.0% | +1.5 pts | $5.0K | 7.5% |
| ↑$7.5B | 29¢ | 29.0% | -8.5 pts | $8.6K | 12.7% |
| ↑$8B | 24¢ | 23.5% | -4.5 pts | $4.9K | 7.2% |
| ↑$9B | 18¢ | 18.0% | +1.0 pts | $4.3K | 6.4% |
| ↑$10B | 14¢ | 13.5% | +0.5 pts | $3.5K | 5.1% |
| ↑$15B | 6¢ | 6.0% | +0.5 pts | $2.7K | 4.0% |
| ↑$12.5B | 5¢ | 4.5% | -3.1 pts | $7.0K | 10.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 68¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 83¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$67.1K has been traded on this event in total, $263 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Glean's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 1, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-77127aa8-38b7-4737-b764-a5024345b19b/data
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 162 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evil-Row | Yes | 162 | $79 |
| Fixed-Eaglet | No | 161 | $82 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 149 | $73 |
| Prudent-Realization-Farrow | No | 110 | $56 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 99 | $49 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 90 | $46 |
| Wide-Eyed-Dark | No | 56 | $29 |
| Fluffy-Toast | No | 55 | $28 |
| Zigzag-Conspirator-Glee | No | 48 | $24 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 40 | $20 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 01:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 52.0% | $26 |
| Oct 23, 11:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 11:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 11:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 55.4% | $26 |
| Oct 22, 01:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 07:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $14 |
| Oct 21, 12:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 08:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $14 |
| Oct 20, 06:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $5 |
| Oct 20, 06:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↓$4B at 49.0%. Next is ↓$5B at 46.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-gleans-valuation-hit-by-december-31-20260701011238536?via=bro
$67.1K in total volume, with $263 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-77127aa8-38b7-4737-b764-a5024345b19b/data.
↓$4B, priced at 49.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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