As of October 24, 2026, 07:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.1% in Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? — $51.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: -0.3 pts; past month: -2.2 pts.
Since January 12, 2026, No has traded between 76.5% and 98.1%. It opened at 76.5% and last traded at 98.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 97.6% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 97.6% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.1% |
No is favored at 98.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.1% | +0.1 pts | $51.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.9% | -0.1 pts | $51.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$51.5K has been traded on this event in total, $49 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,180 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our-Dough | No | 2,180 | $2.1K |
| Tragic-Scorpion | No | 988 | $969 |
| Lovable-Elm | Yes | 644 | $12 |
| Bouncy-Pig | Yes | 500 | $10 |
| Better-Mention | Yes | 429 | $8 |
| Salty-Harmonize | Yes | 401 | $8 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 399 | $8 |
| Whopping-Mosquito | No | 300 | $294 |
| Ecstatic-Veto | No | 300 | $294 |
| 0x6b0ebbef… | Yes | 215 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.9% | $24 |
| Oct 23, 04:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.9% | $49 |
| Oct 23, 02:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.9% | $54 |
| Oct 23, 12:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.1% | $29 |
| Oct 23, 09:45 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.1% | $49 |
| Oct 23, 02:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 02:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.1% | $34 |
| Oct 22, 05:43 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.9% | $24 |
| Oct 22, 10:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.9% | $24 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.1%. Next is Yes at 1.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-greenland-vote-for-independence-in-2026?via=bro
$51.5K in total volume, with $49 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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