As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 80.0% in Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? — $124.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 80.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +5.0 pts.
Since November 11, 2025, No has traded between 13.0% and 89.0%. It opened at 20.5% and last traded at 81.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 81.0% |
No is favored at 80.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 80¢ | 80.0% | -1.0 pts | $124.9K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 20¢ | 20.0% | +1.0 pts | $124.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 26¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$124.9K has been traded on this event in total, $135 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,781 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orange-Measure | Yes | 5,781 | $1.2K |
| Harmonious-Destination | Yes | 4,802 | $960 |
| Infantile-Salami | No | 3,322 | $2.7K |
| Distinct-Kale | No | 1,939 | $1.6K |
| Fluffy-Settler | No | 1,186 | $948 |
| Busy-Graduate | No | 1,043 | $834 |
| Superficial-Essay | No | 862 | $689 |
| Sugary-Shape | Yes | 836 | $167 |
| Phony-Routine | Yes | 735 | $147 |
| Adventurous-Spot | No | 709 | $568 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 11:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 07:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 07:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 05:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 10:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 09:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 02:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.8% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 02:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 80.0%. Next is Yes at 20.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-half-life-3-be-announced-before-2027?via=bro
$124.9K in total volume, with $135 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 80.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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