As of October 24, 2026, 07:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 20.0% in Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...? — $54.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 20.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +8.5 pts.
Since October 12, 2026, December 31 has traded between 11.5% and 23.5%. It opened at 14.0% and last traded at 20.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 19.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 20.0% |
December 31 is favored at 20.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 20¢ | 20.0% | +1.0 pts | $24.9K | 46.0% |
| October 31 | 5¢ | 4.9% | -0.8 pts | $29.2K | 54.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$54.2K has been traded on this event in total, $960 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or an Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Iranian proxy groups are: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. Only physical damage to undersea internet cable infrastructure will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects. A qualifying incident must be deliberately caused by, or result from an attack or other deliberate action by, Iran or an Iranian proxy. Damage caused as a result of an Iranian or Iranian proxy attack on a vessel will qualify. Attempted attacks that do not result in damage will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The occurrence, cause, and attribution of qualifying cable damage will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,521 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unfit-Coleslaw | Yes | 1,521 | $304 |
| NoSteinNoGate | Yes | 1,028 | $206 |
| Circular-Sandpaper-Larder | No | 923 | $738 |
| Quizzical-Hire | No | 666 | $533 |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 565 | $452 |
| Known-Use | No | 238 | $191 |
| Calm-Dusk | No | 228 | $183 |
| Thorny-Oversight | No | 144 | $115 |
| Immaterial-Stalk | No | 100 | $80 |
| Optimal-Root | Yes | 83 | $17 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.1% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 04:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.6% | $183 |
| Oct 24, 04:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.6% | $86 |
| Oct 24, 04:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.5% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 02:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.4% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 02:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.4% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 06:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.1% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:46 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.4% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 20.0%. Next is October 31 at 4.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-damage-undersea-internet-cables-byptptpt?via=bro
$54.2K in total volume, with $960 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 20.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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