Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 20.0% in Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...? — $54.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $960.
Leading outcome
December 31
20%
A 20.0% price implies roughly a 20-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D +8.5 pts
December 3120.0%
October 314.9%
Bid
19¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 12, 2026: 11.5% – 23.5% · Opened at 14.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?
Category
Iran, Israel, outages, Politics, internet, Geopolitics, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Offensive Strikes
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$54.2K
Volume (24h)
$960
Liquidity
$53.2K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 20.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 20.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +8.5 pts.

Since October 12, 2026, December 31 has traded between 11.5% and 23.5%. It opened at 14.0% and last traded at 20.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202612.5%
Oct 18, 202611.5%
Oct 19, 202611.5%
Oct 20, 202614.0%
Oct 22, 202620.5%
Oct 23, 202619.0%
Oct 24, 202620.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 20.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3120¢20.0%+1.0 pts$24.9K46.0%
October 315¢4.9%-0.8 pts$29.2K54.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$54.2K has been traded on this event in total, $960 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or an Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Iranian proxy groups are: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. Only physical damage to undersea internet cable infrastructure will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects. A qualifying incident must be deliberately caused by, or result from an attack or other deliberate action by, Iran or an Iranian proxy. Damage caused as a result of an Iranian or Iranian proxy attack on a vessel will qualify. Attempted attacks that do not result in damage will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The occurrence, cause, and attribution of qualifying cable damage will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,521 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Unfit-ColeslawYes1,521$304
NoSteinNoGateYes1,028$206
Circular-Sandpaper-LarderNo923$738
Quizzical-HireNo666$533
Unlined-PoleNo565$452
Known-UseNo238$191
Calm-DuskNo228$183
Thorny-OversightNo144$115
Immaterial-StalkNo100$80
Optimal-RootYes83$17

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $317 at 96.0%BUY No — $183 at 95.6%SELL No — $127 at 79.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:08 PM ETYesSELL4.0%$2
Oct 24, 04:06 PM ETNoBUY96.1%$10
Oct 24, 04:06 PM ETNoBUY96.0%$48
Oct 24, 04:06 PM ETNoBUY95.6%$183
Oct 24, 04:06 PM ETNoBUY95.6%$86
Oct 24, 04:06 PM ETYesSELL4.5%$13
Oct 24, 02:26 PM ETNoBUY95.4%$29
Oct 24, 02:26 PM ETNoBUY95.4%$48
Oct 24, 06:47 AM ETYesSELL5.1%$5
Oct 24, 06:46 AM ETYesSELL5.4%$5

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 20.0%. Next is October 31 at 4.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-damage-undersea-internet-cables-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...??

$54.2K in total volume, with $960 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 20.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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