As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 6.5% in Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? — $767.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 6.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -5.5 pts; past month: -4.5 pts.
Since June 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 4.5% and 49.0%. It opened at 49.0% and last traded at 6.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 7.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 6.5% |
December 31 is favored at 6.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $300 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$767.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 55 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparkling-Skating | No | 55 | $52 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 50 | $3 |
| Mortified-Wetland | Yes | 22 | $1 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | No | 18 | $17 |
| 0xe3aeb10c… | Yes | 15 | $1 |
| Closed-Statin | No | 10 | $9 |
| Firsthand-Glass | Yes | 6 | $0 |
| Genuine-Segment | No | 5 | $5 |
| Limited-Hub | No | 5 | $4 |
| Rapid-Crewmember | Yes | 2 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 12:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $51 |
| Oct 16, 01:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 03, 10:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $0 |
| Sep 28, 04:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $5 |
| Sep 28, 04:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $5 |
| Sep 27, 10:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $5 |
| Sep 27, 10:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $5 |
| Sep 21, 11:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $1 |
| Sep 18, 09:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $6 |
| Sep 11, 12:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 6.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-hold-a-presidential-election-by-june-30?via=bro
$767.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 6.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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