As of October 24, 2026, 07:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.0% in Will Iran legalize gay marriage? — $82.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.1 pts; past month: +0.1 pts.
Since March 18, 2026, No has traded between 96.2% and 98.2%. It opened at 96.2% and last traded at 98.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.0% |
No is favored at 98.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.0% | — | $82.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 2.0% | — | $82.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$82.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law. Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline. The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,291 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monstrous-Dew | Yes | 8,291 | $166 |
| Thirsty-Spoon | No | 3,502 | $3.4K |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 3,230 | $3.2K |
| Glittering-Laparoscope | No | 1,396 | $1.4K |
| Defensive-Pumpkin-Bower | No | 1,276 | $1.3K |
| Knowing-Void | Yes | 1,160 | $23 |
| Limited-Mythology | No | 1,000 | $980 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 792 | $16 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | No | 781 | $765 |
| Peppery-Capital | No | 755 | $740 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 03:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 12:54 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $1.7K |
| Oct 16, 02:38 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $1.2K |
| Oct 15, 01:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 01:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $1 |
| Oct 05, 10:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $2 |
| Oct 02, 03:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $1 |
| Sep 30, 07:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $102 |
| Sep 24, 05:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $20 |
| Sep 24, 02:29 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.9% | $21 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.0%. Next is Yes at 2.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-legalize-gay-marriage?via=bro
$82.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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