Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Iran target Kuwait by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 5.0% in Will Iran target Kuwait by...? — $25.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $435.
Leading outcome
October 31
5%
A 5.0% price implies roughly a 5-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −14.0 pts7D −8.5 pts
Bid
3¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
4¢
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Range since September 30, 2026: 5.0% – 47.0% · Opened at 28.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Iran target Kuwait by...?
Category
Iran, Kuwait, Military, Geopolitics, Middle East, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Scheduled end
September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET
Total volume
$25.0K
Volume (24h)
$435
Liquidity
$10.2K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 5.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 5.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -14.0 pts; past week: -8.5 pts.

Since September 30, 2026, October 31 has traded between 5.0% and 47.0%. It opened at 28.5% and last traded at 5.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202615.5%
Oct 18, 202622.0%
Oct 19, 202614.0%
Oct 20, 202617.0%
Oct 22, 202616.5%
Oct 23, 202619.0%
Oct 24, 20265.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 5.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 315¢5.0%-14.0 pts$2.8K11.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$25.0K has been traded on this event in total, $435 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Kuwait through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Kuwait. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 279 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Worldly-CrimeNo279$265
Belated-GlueYes260$13
Sticky-ClosingNo255$242
Shady-DogYes130$6
Fuzzy-Jeep-TrenchNo103$98
Attentive-CrewmanYes100$5
Snappy-RoosterYes61$3
Known-UseYes61$3
Plastic-DuckYes40$2
Rowdy-TenementYes30$2

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $209 at 81.8%SELL No — $46 at 89.6%SELL Yes — $38 at 27.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 11:57 AM ETYesSELL6.0%$4
Oct 24, 11:57 AM ETYesSELL7.0%$1
Oct 24, 11:30 AM ETYesSELL7.0%$1
Oct 24, 11:30 AM ETNoBUY93.0%$19
Oct 24, 11:30 AM ETYesSELL8.0%$2
Oct 24, 11:29 AM ETNoBUY91.0%$18
Oct 24, 11:29 AM ETYesSELL10.0%$2
Oct 24, 10:55 AM ETNoBUY81.8%$209
Oct 22, 03:01 PM ETYesBUY20.0%$8
Oct 22, 03:01 PM ETYesBUY20.0%$4

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Iran target Kuwait by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-kuwait-byptptpt-20260907?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Iran target Kuwait by...??

$25.0K in total volume, with $435 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Iran target Kuwait by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Iran target Kuwait by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 5.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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